—Ann Mroz, "THE Awards 2008," The Times Higher Education Supplement, September 25, 2008
Drawing on a workshop of 36 leading climate scientists in October 2005 at the British Embassy, Berlin, Germany, a further elicitation of 52 experts in the field, and a review of the pertinent literature, the authors compiled a short-list of nine potential tipping elements. These tipping elements are ranked as the most policy-relevant and require consideration in international climate politics.
Arctic sea-ice and the Greenland Ice Sheet are regarded as the most sensitive tipping elements with the smallest uncertainty. Scientists expect ice cover to dwindle due to global warming. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is probably less sensitive as a tipping element, but projections of its future behavior have large uncertainty. This also applies to the Amazon rainforest and Boreal forests, the El Nino phenomenon, and the West African monsoon. "These tipping elements are candidates for surprising society by exhibiting a nearby tipping point," the authors state in the article that is published in PNAS Online Early Edition. The archetypal example of a tipping element, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, could undergo a large abrupt transition with up to ten percent probability within this century, according to the UN climate report from 2007.
—"Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system," Science Letter, February 19, 2008
—Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Paul J. Crutzen, William C. Clark, Julian Hunt, "Earth System analysis for sustainability," Environment, October 1, 2005
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